An instrument for scenario-based technology roadmapping: How to assess the impacts of future changes on organisational plans ¬リニ

Article history: Received 14 January 2013 Received in revised form 15 August 2013 Accepted 29 December 2013 Available online 19 January 2014 Scenario-based technology roadmapping offers a strong capability for strategic planning to respond to increasingly volatile environments. However, previous studies cannot guide organisations towards making robust decisions against complex future conditions since they remain conceptual and rely solely on graphical mapping tools. To counter this, we propose a systematic approach to making scenario-based technology roadmapping more robust by adding the ability to assess the impacts of future changes on organisational plans. At the heart of the suggested approach is a Bayesian network that can examine uncertainty inherent in future changes and ripple impacts resulting from interdependence among activities. The proposed approach is designed to be executed in three discrete steps: defining a roadmap topology and causal relationships via qualitative and quantitative modelling; assessing the impacts of future changes on organisational plans via current state analysis and sensitivity analysis; and finally managing plans and activities via development of plan assessment map and activity assessmentmap. A case study of photovoltaic cell technology is presented to show the feasibility of ourmethod.We believe the systematic process and quantitative outcomes the suggested approach offers can facilitate responsive technology planning in the face of future uncertainties. © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.